Well this is it, the last regular season games of the year. It’s sad, but let us enjoy it! There are NFL bets to be won.
Last week: 13-7
Before I share my favorites of the week, I urge you to take a look at my detailed matchup breakdown here, it’s the backbone for much of this analysis and a very helpful resource.
Additionally, I think it’s best to avoid the Week 17 games that have no meaning for either team, and there are a few of them. You can take stock of the games that matter here.
It’s tough, as the Vikings-Lions game makes that list, and if you take a look at my matchup breakdown, there is a significant advantage for Minnesota. Alas, I need to go with my gut – that game could get unpredictable.
Let’s get to it. I’ve brought my bets to the top, but all are explained below. My book isn’t great, so got these lines from other sites until I get them posted for myself. Will update if need be, but I like all of these players.
NFL Bets: Player Props I’m Targeting for 1PM/4PM
- Mike Evans OVER 67.5 receiving yards
- Gus Edwards OVER 46.5 rushing yards
- Wayne Gallman OVER 52.5 rushing yards
- Zach Pascal OVER 39.5 receiving yards
- Derrick Henry OVER 118.5 rushing yards & AJ Brown OVER 68.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor OVER 85.5 rushing yards
Mike Evans OVER 67.5 receiving yards
The biggest advantage in this game skews in favor of the Tampa Bay passing game. These teams played just two weeks ago, and Bucs receivers hauled in 18 balls for 259 yards and two touchdowns.
I wouldn’t mind a piece of that.
Snap counts and usage suggests Mike Evans is the clear top receiver in this offense, followed by Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.
I’ve got my eyes on Evans in this one, averaging nearly nine targets per game in his last six. In those games, Evans averages 87.2 yards per game. He’s gone for 110 and 181 in his last two.
If interested in another receiver, I’d recommend Godwin (over 52.5), for the sole reason that he feels due for a big game. Being “due” isn’t scientific enough for me to recommend or pursue, but he hasn’t yet gone over 100 yards this season and this Tampa offense is humming.
Gus Edwards OVER 46.5 rushing yards
The other option here is JK Dobbins, currently set at 72.5 yards. I like them both, as there is a clear advantage for the Baltimore run game against the Bengals.
The Bengals surrender an average of 5.1 yards per carry to running backs, and 115.5 rushing yards per game.
I like the lower line in Edwards. He’s averaging 69.3 yards per game in his last four, significantly higher than his set line today.
Meanwhile, Dobbins has been getting more work consistently, with double digit carries in each of his last five games played, though he did leave early with a chest injury last week.
In that span, Dobbins is averaging 67 yards per game, below his mark set here.
Both are very intriguing and I may end up taking the lot – for now, I’m rolling with Edwards.
Wayne Gallman OVER 52.5 rushing yards
This is a bet against the Dallas defense much more so than an endorsement of the Giants offense, which has struggled to do much of anything the last three weeks.
The Cowboys have been gashed on the ground weekly, and as the main-man on the Giants, Gallman is in a good spot to hit his over, if this game remains competitive.
Factor in the forecasted rain in East Rutherford, and I expect New York to establish the run and get Gallman going.
AJ Brown OVER 68.5 receiving yards & Derrick Henry OVER 118.5 rushing yards
If you took a look at my matchup breakdown (which you really should do), you would have noticed the biggest disparities of the week favored the Tennessee offense against the Houston defense.
I’ve got to listen to the numbers. In a game they need to win, the Titans are well-positioned for offensive fireworks, and I want a piece of the pie.
You don’t need me to explain how good these two players are. They are the top players in this offense, and in a game I’d expect a lot of points, I’m taking them both.
Zach Pascal OVER 39.5 receiving yards
The Colts need to win and get some help to get into the playoffs, there should be no doubt that this team is going to come out firing.
Snap counts show Pascal is the top receiver, not Hilton. Jacksonville’s secondary is ranked 31st on both PFF and in DVOA, and it’s a unit we must target.
Pascal has gone for 64 and 79 yards his last two games and plays the most of any Colts receiver, giving his set line today tremendous value.
Consider taking either Hilton or Pittman here as well against this awful secondary, they may very well all hit. I’m rolling with Pascal.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 85.5 rushing yards
Let’s stick with Indy. Taylor is the top-back for the Colts, no question. In his last five games, he’s averaging nearly 18 carries per game. Now, he gets Jacksonville’s struggling rush defense, allowing an average of 117 yards per game to running backs.
Taylor is on a tear, and in a game the Colts need to win, I like them to put the ball in their rookie’s hands.
Keep an eye on: Rams running backs
Cam Akers is a game-time decision, and as such, both he and Malcolm Brown’s rushing props are unavailable. The Cardinals have struggled to stop the run of late, PFF grades them as the 31st rush defense in the NFL. The Rams offense was built around the run before, what do you think will happen with a backup quarterback in?
Keep an eye on: Saints rushing props
One of the biggest disparities from the matchup breakdown linked out above was for the Saints rushing game. Unfortunately, New Orleans has no running backs available due to a positive covid-case and subsequent close-contacts.
Taysom Hill and Ty Montgomery seem set to benefit from no running backs, and the lines are still not available to me. I can’t picture the Saints abandoning the run entirely.
NFL Bets: 6-point Teasers of the Week (-110)
- PIT/CLE under 49.5
- WAS/PHI under 50
This is the same strategy I used last week. In my matchup breakdowns, there are two games where the offenses don’t have a single advantage. Logic would suggest the teams might struggle to score points.
So, I’ve teased up the unders in both. It worked last week with a three-team teaser, and I’m running it back.
Titans vs. Texans Teaser
Titans -1, Over 48.5
There is a massive advantage for the Titans offense in this one, and in a must-win game, I like them to win and score with ease. Their defense isn’t great, so it should allow the Texans to put up some points. Locked in.
That will wrap it up for Week 17 player props and NFL bets. Make sure you’re following on Twitter, @griffybets – I’m always here as a resource for you. Best of luck today!