We only have two weeks left of the NFL regular season. Where did the time go?
As we prepare to get our Week 16 player props in order, I’ve decided to mix it up. I urge you to take a look at my detailed matchup breakdown here. There’s no analysis, that’s what this article is for. But, this is the best resource I can possibly serve you up. Every single offensive matchup for every single NFL game. Passing and rushing breakdowns.
If you want to understand why the props and picks we’re about to get to are my favorites of Week 16, you need to scan that article.
With that out of the way, let’s get to it.
Five Week 16 Player Props I’m Targeting for 1PM/4PM
- Sammy Watkins OVER 50.5 receiving yards
- Austin Hooper OVER 36.5 receiving yards
- Kareem Hunt OVER 27.5 receiving yards
- Miles Sanders OVER 77.5 rushing yards
- Antonio Gibson OVER 49.5 rushing yards
Sammy Watkins OVER 50.5 receiving yards
Tyreek Hill has a gimpy hamstring and may be on a snap count against the middling Atlanta secondary.
Enter Sammy Watkins, who is playing over 80% of the snaps in this offense. Watkins has 22 targets in his last four games, a number that could increase if Hill is on a pitch-count.
Someone for this Kansas City passing attack is going to have a big day today, as a win secures them the coveted first-round bye in the AFC.
Atlanta has actually been pretty solid covering tight ends this year, allowing an average of just 57.6 yards per game. With Kelce’s line set at 80.5, I’ll lean on Watkins and this reasonable over/under.
The Falcons secondary has surrendered 205.2 yards per game to receivers and has yet to face a passing offense quite like Kansas City’s.
Austin Hooper OVER 36.5 receiving yards/Kareem Hunt OVER 27.5 receiving yards
In case you missed it, the Browns will be without their receivers today:
This leaves the Cleveland offense with Hooper and Hunt as the likely top options in the passing attack. As you saw from the passing/running game breakdown piece, this passing attack was the clear matchup to target.
I like Hooper and Hunt to have big days against this dreadful Jets secondary. The Jets have been susceptible to tight end success all year, so even with receivers, Hooper was good value. Now, even moreso.
Hunt is fourth on the team in targets, and with Landry and Higgins out, he slots up to second on the team behind Hooper. I’d expect screens and Hunt in the slot today, and I’m excited to take these two in what is the latest in position-groups being eliminated before game day.
Miles Sanders OVER 77.5 rushing yards
Jalen Hurts has opened up the running game for Sanders and this Eagles offense. In Hurts’ two starts, Sanders has gone over his projected rushing each time, and now gets a Dallas defense that’s been gashed on the ground every single week.
The Cowboys are allowing 133.6 rushing yards per game to running backs, and there is no doubt that Sanders is the main-man for the Eagles.
Hurts should siphon up some yardage himself, but there’s plenty to go around. Consider taking the quarterbacks rushing number as well.
Antonio Gibson OVER 49.5 rushing yards
Gibson is back after a turf toe injury suffered in Week 13 and seems poised to reclaim his role in this offense. With McLaurin out and in a must-win game, I’d expect to see a lot of Gibson against this weak Panthers defense.
No matter who is at quarterback, Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins, this offense is going to run through Gibson and McKissic. I prefer Gibson’s upside, and coming off injury, his line is reasonable.
NFL Bets: 10-point Teaser of the Week (-120)
- NYG/BAL under 54
- IND/PIT under 52.5
- DEN/LAC under 57.5
If you take a look at the rankings for every game I plugged above, you’ll see that these three games don’t offer any value for the offensive units.
In fact, besides a slight advantage in the Denver and Baltimore rushing attacks, every matchup skews to favor the defense significantly.
So, the approach here is simple: tease up the unders in games the offenses should seemingly struggle.
The Giants offense should find life difficult against the Ravens, and New York’s defense is no slouch.
The Colts and Steelers are two of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Steelers offense is statistically one of the worst in the entire NFL.
The Broncos have a great defense and an awful offense, a fantastic recipe for an under.
So, that’s that! I’m teasing today – time to get on track with these.
That will wrap it up for Week 16 player props and NFL bets. Make sure you’re following on Twitter, @griffybets – I’m always here as a resource for you. Best of luck today!
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