We’re back for another week of player prop planning. Using PFF’s grading, I’ve broken down every single offensive matchup for every single NFL game in Week 15. You’re welcome. Here is my NFL Week 15 preview.
The goal here? Find disparities to target.
Since Thanksgiving, we are 36-22 – let’s keep it going.
There were a few clear favorites I’ll be betting on this weekend, I’ve ranked them in order of confidence. My book doesn’t post lines until Sunday morning, but unless egregious, I’ll be taking the overs/unders for each of the below players:
- Sam Darnold under passing yards
- AJ Brown over receiving yards
- Derrick Henry over rushing yards
- Jonathan Taylor over rushing yards
- Robert Woods over receiving yards
- Brandon Aiyuk over receiving yards
- Miles Sanders over rushing yards
- DeAndre Hopkins over receiving yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire under rushing yards
- Giovani Bernard under rushing yards
- Peyton Barber under rushing yards
- David Montgomery over rushing yards
- Ito Smith/Todd Gurley under rushing yards
- Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill over receiving yards
Now, I’m not asking you to blindly trust me. Take a look at the below matchups! Let this be a resource for you as you plan your weekend bets and daily fantasy lineups. I hope it helps. As always, please join me on Twitter, @griffybets, to continue the conversation.
Lions at Titans
Detroit on Offense
Running grade (30) vs. Titans Rush Defense grade (18) -12
Receiving grade (13) vs. Titans Pass Coverage grade (7) -6
Tennessee on Offense
Running grade (1) vs. Lions Rush defense grade (28) +27
Receiving grade (3) vs. Lions Pass coverage grade (31) +28
Wow – the two biggest disparities we have seen yet! This is a no-brainer to pursue. The lines are going to be high, especially for Henry, but it matters not. I’ll be taking the over for both Henry and AJ Brown. Let’s ride. Also interested in Tennessee’s total points in this one.
49ers at Cowboys
San Francisco on Offense
Running grade (21) vs. Cowboys Rush Defense grade (26) +5
Receiving grade (6) vs. Cowboys Pass Coverage grade (28) +22
Dallas on Offense
Running grade (24) vs. 49ers Rush defense grade (10) -14
Receiving grade (21) vs. 49ers Pass coverage grade (6) -15
It’s no secret the Cowboys have been an awful defensive team all year. Brandon Aiyuk is the clear top receiver for the 49ers and an over I’ll be taking on Sunday. Consider fading the entire Dallas offense against a strong defense. The 49ers are currently three-point favorites, I like them here at that number.
Bears at Vikings
Chicago on Offense
Running grade (12) vs. Vikings Rush Defense grade (26) +14
Receiving grade (20) vs. Vikings Pass Coverage grade (16) -4
Minnesota on Offense
Running grade (2) vs. Bears Rush defense grade (7) +5
Receiving grade (1) vs. Bears Pass coverage grade (9) +8
The biggest advantage goes to David Montgomery, who hit his over on the first play of the day for the Bears a week ago. The Vikings have one of the top offenses in the entire NFL, but the Bears offer a stiff enough test that I’ll be staying away.
Buccaneers at Falcons
Tampa Bay on Offense
Running grade (13) vs. Falcons Rush Defense grade (12) -1
Receiving grade (14) vs. Falcons Pass Coverage grade (13) -1
Atlanta on Offense
Running grade (32) vs. Bucs Rush defense grade (9) -23
Receiving grade (15) vs. Bucs Pass coverage grade (12) -3
The Falcons have run a pretty even split between Ito Smith and Todd Gurley lately. If you can find either of these runner’s listed on your book, take their under.
Texans at Colts
Houston on Offense
Running grade (27) vs. Colts Rush Defense grade (14) -13
Receiving grade (7) vs. Colts Pass Coverage grade (5) -2
Indianapolis on Offense
Running grade (10) vs. Texans Rush defense grade (31) +21
Receiving grade (11) vs. Texans Pass coverage grade (27) +16
We clearly need to target the Colts in this game. Snap counts suggest it’s Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines as the two runners in this backfield. Jonathan Taylor has 33 carries in his last two games. Let’s go after the hot-hand.
Seahawks at Washington
Seattle on Offense
Running grade (8) vs. Washington Rush Defense grade (8)
Receiving grade (5) vs. Washington Pass Coverage grade (3) -2
Washington on Offense
Running grade (25) vs. Seahawks Rush defense grade (3) -22
Receiving grade (28) vs. Seahawks Pass coverage grade (21) -7
This Washington defense is legit and the reason they’ve won four straight games. Won’t be betting against them. It doesn’t seem like Antonio Gibson is going to be back – I would be interested in Peyton Barber’s under. McKissic is the lead back in this offense and will be a big part of the game plan. However, he and Barber have been splitting carries – and this is a disparity we have to target with an under.
Patriots at Dolphins
New England on Offense
Running grade (3) vs. Dolphins Rush Defense grade (13) +10
Receiving grade (22) vs. Dolphins Pass Coverage grade (17) -5
Miami on Offense
Running grade (29) vs. Patriots Rush defense grade (23) -6
Receiving grade (10) vs. Patriots Pass coverage grade (15) +5
Damien Harris’ over is the best bet in this game, but I admit I’m not loving the matchup here – I’ll be staying away.
Jaguars at Ravens
Jacksonville on Offense
Running grade (15) vs. Ravens Rush Defense grade (20) +5
Receiving grade (25) vs. Ravens Pass Coverage grade (11) -14
Baltimore on Offense
Running grade (14) vs. Jaguars Rush defense grade (16) +2
Receiving grade (28) vs. Jaguars Pass coverage grade (30) +2
Not great here. Best value to consider is another under, for a Jaguars receiver. How about DJ Chark, who hasn’t surpassed 56 yards in his last four games. Not in love with this pick, but it’s the best I’m seeing.
Jets at Rams
New York on Offense
Running grade (22) vs. Rams Rush Defense grade (11) -11
Receiving grade (32) vs. Rams Pass Coverage grade (2) -30
Los Angeles on Offense
Running grade (6) vs. Jets Rush defense grade (4) -2
Receiving grade (16) vs. Jets Pass coverage grade (32) +16
We have to go after Sam Darnold’s under in this one. A 30-point differential is the largest difference I’ve seen yet.
The buzz around the Rams is around Cam Akers, but I would temper expectations this week. For those who have been reading weekly, the Jets run defense is the rare bright spot for this awful team. The better value is in Rams receivers. Both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp average over 70% snaps played. Josh Reynolds seems to be trending down in playing time, so either of the above should have a strong chance of going over.
Last three weeks targets: Woods (31), Kupp (19)
Let’s go for Woods.
Eagles at Cardinals
Philadelphia on Offense
Running grade (9) vs. Cardinals Rush Defense grade (30) +21
Receiving grade (31) vs. Cardinals Pass Coverage grade (23) -8
Arizona on Offense
Running grade (19) vs. Eagles Rush defense grade (22) +3
Receiving grade (18) vs. Eagles Pass coverage grade (26) +8
Miles Sanders had a big game a week ago against a strong Saints defense. The presence of Jalen Hurts really opened up things, and I’d expect a similar outcome again. Take Sanders’ over.
The Eagles have been beat by the opposing team’s top receiver for three weeks in a row, and now get Hopkins. Tack on the loss of three starters in the secondary, and I would expect the Cardinals receivers to eat. Take Hopkins’ over.
Chiefs at Saints
Kansas City on Offense
Running grade (20) vs. Saints Rush Defense grade (1) -19
Receiving grade (2) vs. Saints Pass Coverage grade (19) +17
New Orleans on Offense
Running grade (16) vs. Chiefs Rush defense grade (17) +1
Receiving grade (9) vs. Chiefs Pass coverage grade (14) +5
You can never go wrong taking Chiefs overs in the passing game. You know who they are – I’ll be keeping an eye on the line for both Kelce and Hill and likely take whoever is lower.
I will for sure be taking Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s under in this one, this team is built around the passing game.
Browns at Giants
Cleveland on Offense
Running grade (3) vs. Giants Rush Defense grade (5) +2
Receiving grade (8) vs. Giants Pass Coverage grade (21) +13
New York on Offense
Running grade (23) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (21) -2
Receiving grade (27) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (24) -3
Nothing going for the Giants in this game. There could be some interesting value in one of the three Cleveland receivers (Landry, Higgins or Peoples-Jones). We’ll revisit this before Sunday Night Football, but that’s what sticks out here.
Steelers at Bengals
Pittsburgh on Offense
Running grade (28) vs. Bengals Rush Defense grade (24) -4
Receiving grade (30) vs. Bengals Pass Coverage grade (8) -22
Cincinnati on Offense
Running grade (31) vs. Steelers Rush defense grade (2) -29
Receiving grade (24) vs. Steelers Pass coverage grade (1) -23
What a gross Monday night game. I am continuously shocked by how poorly the 11-2 Steelers grade out offensively. I want absolutely no part of the Bengals in this one. The over/under is at an extremely low 40.5, but it’s still up for consideration with rankings like this. The best bet in this one is Gio Bernard’s under, I wouldn’t expect a very high line though.
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