Using PFF’s grading, I’ve broken down every single offensive matchup for every single NFL game in Week 14. You’re welcome.
The goal here? Find disparities to target.
There were a few clear favorites I’ll be betting on this weekend, I’ve ranked them in order of confidence. My book doesn’t post lines until Sunday morning, but unless egregious, I’ll be taking the overs/unders for each of the below players:
- DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett over receiving yards
- AJ Brown/Corey Davis’s over receiving yards
- Everything Green Bay
- Terry McLaurin’s under receiving yards
- Melvin Gordon’s over rushing yards
- Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson’s over receiving yards
- David Montgomery’s over rushing yards
- David Johnson’s under rushing yards
- Michael Thomas over receiving yards
- Ty Johnson’s under rushing yards
Now, I’m not asking you to blindly trust me. Take a look at the below matchups! Let this be a resource for you as you plan your weekend bets and daily fantasy lineups. I hope it helps. As always, please join me on Twitter, @griffybets, to continue the conversation.
Texans at Bears
Houston on Offense
Running grade (27) vs. Bears Rush Defense grade (9) -18
Receiving grade (7) vs. Bears Pass Coverage grade (12) +5
Chicago on Offense
Running grade (7) vs. Texans Rush defense grade (28) +19
Receiving grade (23) vs. Texans Pass coverage grade (27) +4
The biggest disparities are in the run game. For Houston and David Johnson, it doesn’t look good. Meanwhile, David Montgomery and this Bears offense should have success on the ground.
Look for Montgomery’s over and David Johnson’s under.
Vikings at Buccaneers
Minnesota on Offense
Running grade (1) vs. Bucs Rush Defense grade (8) +7
Receiving grade (1) vs. Bucs Pass Coverage grade (10) +9
Tampa Bay on Offense
Running grade (15) vs. Vikings Rush defense grade (26) +11
Receiving grade (17) vs. Vikings Pass coverage grade (7) -10
I will be wanting one or both of Thielen and Jefferson’s overs again.
I’m surprised to see the Vikings secondary ranked so high, I’ll have my eyes on Ronald Jones.
Overs for Thielen, Jefferson and RoJo.
Titans at Jaguars
Tennessee on Offense
Running grade (2) vs. Jaguars Rush Defense grade (12) +10
Receiving grade (4) vs. Jaguars Pass Coverage grade (30) +26
Jacksonville on Offense
Running grade (21) vs. Titans Rush defense grade (26) +5
Receiving grade (25) vs. Titans Pass coverage grade (9) -16
Drooling at this passing game mismatch for the Titans offense. I’ll be taking all the AJ Brown/Corey Davis I can get.
Cowboys at Bengals
Dallas on Offense
Running grade (22) vs. Bengals Rush Defense grade (25) +3
Receiving grade (21) vs. Bengals Pass Coverage grade (6) -15
Cincinnati on Offense
Running grade (30) vs. Cowboys Rush defense grade (31) +1
Receiving grade (24) vs. Cowboys Pass coverage grade (28) +4
Pretty gross game that I frankly want no part of. The Bengals may be able to shut down the Cowboys receivers, if you want to take an under there.
The Cowboys have gotten gashed on the ground all year, and maybe Gio Bernard’s line will be low enough to consider, but this Bengals run grade does not elicit much confidence.
Cardinals at Giants
Arizona on Offense
Running grade (11) vs. Giants Rush Defense grade (6) -5
Receiving grade (19) vs. Giants Pass Coverage grade (21) +2
New York on Offense
Running grade (25) vs. Cardinals Rush defense grade (28) +3
Receiving grade (26) vs. Cardinals Pass coverage grade (24) -2
Not much to get excited about in this game either, from a prop perspective.
Broncos at Panthers
Denver on Offense
Running grade (8) vs. Panthers Rush Defense grade (27) +19
Receiving grade (30) vs. Panthers Pass Coverage grade (29) -1
Carolina on Offense
Running grade (5) vs. Broncos Rush defense grade (5)
Receiving grade (22) vs. Broncos Pass coverage grade (5) -17
I’ll be glued to Melvin Gordon’s over in this one. Just away from the props for a second, the defensive rankings for both teams has me thinking the Broncos may cover the +3.5 here.
Consider taking one of Panthers WRs unders, or at the very least, avoid them entirely.
Chiefs at Dolphins
Kansas City on Offense
Running grade (16) vs. Dolphins Rush Defense grade (14) -2
Receiving grade (3) vs. Dolphins Pass Coverage grade (14) +11
Miami on Offense
Running grade (29) vs. Chiefs Rush defense grade (20) -9
Receiving grade (9) vs. Chiefs Pass coverage grade (11) +2
You can rarely go wrong targeting anyone in the Chiefs passing game. This doesn’t quite move the needle for me to take a prop, the Dolphins defense has been above-average this year.
Follow your heart!
Colts at Raiders
Indianapolis on Offense
Running grade (19) vs. Raiders Rush Defense grade (30) +11
Receiving grade (15) vs. Raiders Pass Coverage grade (25) +10
Las Vegas on Offense
Running grade (17) vs. Colts Rush defense grade (15) -2
Receiving grade (10) vs. Colts Pass coverage grade (8) -2
Pretty clear advantage for Indy here. Their backfield is crowded and tough to figure out, so I’d probably focus on the receivers. Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman lead the position in snaps, so keep an eye on these two overs Sunday morning.
Jets at Seahawks
New York on Offense
Running grade (20) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense grade (4) -16
Receiving grade (31) vs. Seahawks Pass Coverage grade (23) -4
Seattle on Offense
Running grade (10) vs. Jets Rush defense grade (3) -7
Receiving grade (6) vs. Jets Pass coverage grade (32) +26
Jackpot. Hammer some Metcalf and Lockett props. I would expect these lines to be high, I’ll probably take the lower of the two but may just take both.
I also like the under for whoever gets the start at RB for the Jets. We may not know until Sunday morning, but in a game that shouldn’t be close, with this disparity, take the under.
Packers at Lions
Green Bay on Offense
Running grade (8) vs. Lions Rush Defense grade (24) +16
Receiving grade (16) vs. Lions Pass Coverage grade (31) +15
Detroit on Offense
Running grade (31) vs. Packers Rush defense grade (21) -10
Receiving grade (11) vs. Packers Pass coverage grade (15) +4
Not a prop, but I love Green Bay over 30.5 points. They are the #2 overall offense according to PFF, going against the 32nd ranked defense. The Lions let the anemic Bears score 30 last week, I love this line.
You can’t go wrong taking any and all Green Bay props in this one.
Falcons at Chargers
Atlanta on Offense
Running grade (32) vs. Chargers Rush Defense grade (17) -15
Receiving grade (11) vs. Chargers Pass Coverage grade (13) +2
Los Angeles on Offense
Running grade (26) vs. Falcons Rush defense grade (12) -14
Receiving grade (18) vs. Falcons Pass coverage grade (19) +1
Pretty awful running teams on both sides here. My reaction to these numbers is: meh. I’m staying away. How bout Under 49 in this game?
Washington at 49ers
Washington on Offense
Running grade (24) vs. 49ers Rush Defense grade (10) -14
Receiving grade (28) vs. 49ers Pass Coverage grade (4) -24
San Francisco on Offense
Running grade (22) vs. Washington Rush defense grade (7) -15
Receiving grade (5) vs. Washington Pass coverage grade (2) -3
What’s the point of studying these matchups if we don’t listen to what the data tells us? Have to take McLaurin’s under with a disparity like this.
I may also take a San Francisco runner’s under, depending on the opening lines.
Saints at Eagles
New Orleans on Offense
Running grade (14) vs. Eagles Rush Defense grade (22) +8
Receiving grade (13) vs. Eagles Pass Coverage grade (26) +13
Philadelphia on Offense
Running grade (12) vs. Saints Rush defense grade (2) -10
Receiving grade (32) vs. Saints Pass coverage grade (18) -14
Keep in mind Jalen Hurts is getting the start for Philly, so these numbers aren’t an accurate representation of what the Eagles offense will do. Or maybe it is – either way, let’s give him a week before we touch the Philly offense in either direction.
Waiting to see if Taysom Hill gets another start for the Saints. If he does, I’d consider taking his over for passing and rushing yards against a seriously struggling Eagles defense.
Steelers at Bills
Pittsburgh on Offense
Running grade (28) vs. Bills Rush Defense grade (32) +4
Receiving grade (29) vs. Bills Pass Coverage grade (22) -7
Buffalo on Offense
Running grade (13) vs. Steelers Rush defense grade (1) -12
Receiving grade (2) vs. Steelers Pass coverage grade (1) -1
Yup, in case you haven’t done the math – the Steelers are the best defense in the NFL. Just another game I’m staying away from.
Ravens at Browns
Baltimore on Offense
Running grade (18) vs. Browns Rush Defense grade (16) -2
Receiving grade (27) vs. Browns Pass Coverage grade (20) -7
Cleveland on Offense
Running grade (4) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (17) +13
Receiving grade (8) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (16) +8
An intriguing advantage for Cleveland across the board has me drawn to Browns +1.5 for sure. Keep in mind, Browns guard Wyatt Teller was put on the Covid list earlier this week. As one of the best guards in football, his absence would be notable. Props-wise, it’s got to be the Chubb and Hunt show again if Teller plays. They split snaps a week ago and I’d expect more of the same. Take Hunt’s over, which should be the lower line.
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