At this point in the season we know that Purdue and Kansas are elite. There are some other teams, such as Iowa, Iowa State and Ohio State that are also very good. Because all of this is so well known, you rarely get a good price on a wager. Here are a few Midwest teams you may not be looking at that are worthy of your wager.
Against the Spread
Sure, Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation and that is reflected by their pristine 5-1 record against the spread. Their margin of victory is a sparkling 28.3 points per game and they are over-performing the spread by +9.3.
One team that is absolutely under your radar is the Depaul Blue Demons. Now, you can point to the level of competition as the main culprit here but defeating teams on the schedule is all teams can do.
As the old saying goes, good teams win, great teams cover. Depaul is 5-1 this season against the spread with a margin of victory of nearly 19 points per game and are outperforming the number by +8.8 points.
While Depaul is the good kind of surprising, there is money to be made on being bad as well. For that less than flattering distinction we turn to the North Dakota Fighting Hawks. The Fighting Hawks are 2-5 straight up on the season and just 2-5 against the spread.
While plenty of teams are bad ATS so far this season, North Dakota really stands out in a way that they really don’t want to. Their average margin of victory (which includes positive numbers from victories) is -12.3 points per game. They are also underperforming the spread by -5.3 points per game.
Admittedly, totals are the most difficult thing for me to wager on. My track record is not good but I can convey statistics all day long.
One team to take a look at is not surprising at all: Dan Muller’s Illinois State Redbirds. The Redbirds have gone over the total in five of their six games so far this season and the reasons are not hard to identify.
Illinois State is obliterating their totals by nearly +28 points per game. The first question would be: “How?”. Well, Muller’s team has a strong commitment to offense this season, averaging over 83 points per game.
The flip side to that coin is that they don’t have a strong commitment to defense. Despite not playing a team within the top 90, they are surrendering a ridiculous 86 points per game.
The Redbirds currently rank 285th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Simply put, Vegas almost cannot make their totals high enough.
If boring basketball and betting unders is your thing, look no further than the IUPUI Jaguars. Matt Crenshaw’s 1-5 squad has failed to exceed the total in all five of their qualifying games this season. They aren’t barely missing it either.
The Jags are missing the total by an average of -22.5 points per game.They rank 352nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 322nd in tempo and 47th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage. Simply put, they are terrible on offense, they slow you down and make you shoot bad shots on defense.
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