NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Matchup Breakdowns

As is a weekly tradition, I present matchup breakdowns to help inform our Wild Card Weekend bets. 

This is for my data nerds out there – my own analysis and choices will come later.

Initial takeaways: there’s less obvious spots to target for player props. It’s almost as if teams that make the playoffs have better defenses – weird. There are a few clear advantages for the Colts and Ravens rushing attacks, but otherwise, we’re going to have to dig deeper.

There should be no doubt that I will dig – make sure you don’t miss my game previews this weekend. I’ll post all of them on Twitter, @griffybets.

One strategy I’ve implemented to success the last two weeks has been to target the unders in games where no offense has an advantage. I’ve been doing six or ten-point teasers, teasing up the unders in all games.

This week? There’s three such games. You know I’ll be doing it again.

Let’s get to it. Take a look at the data and form your own opinions. Maybe they’re the same as mine, that would be great! My favorite props and picks will come throughout the week.

Give me a shout on Twitter, which teams do you like this weekend?

Wild Card Weekend Bets: Matchup Rankings for Every Game

Each game for Wild Card Weekend is here. All the information you need for player props. Start your engines.

Philip Rivers on Jonathan Taylor's 253: 'Don't know that I've been around  that' | Fox 59

Colts at Bills

Indianapolis Passing Offense

Receiving grade (16) vs. Bills Pass Coverage grade (11)

Passing DVOA (16) vs. Bills Pass Defense DVOA (12)

Net difference: -9

Indianapolis Rushing Offense

Running grade (3) vs. Bills Rush Defense grade (30)

Rushing DVOA (12) vs. Bills Rush Defense DVOA (17)

Net difference: +32

Buffalo Passing Offense

Receiving grade (3) vs. Colts Pass coverage grade (6)

Passing DVOA (3) vs. Colts Pass Defense DVOA (8)

Net difference: +8

Buffalo Rushing Offense

Running grade (14) vs. Colts Rush defense grade (13)

Rushing DVOA (22) vs. Colts Rush Defense DVOA (9)

Net difference: -14

Rams at Seahawks

Los Angeles Passing Offense

Receiving grade (18) vs. Seahawks Pass Coverage grade (16)

Passing DVOA (20) vs. Seahawks Pass Defense DVOA (20)

Net difference: -2

Los Angeles Rushing Offense

Running grade (20) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense grade (1)

Rushing DVOA (4) vs. Seahawks Rush Defense DVOA (7)

Net difference: -16

Seattle Passing Offense

Receiving grade (9) vs. Rams Pass coverage grade (1)

Passing DVOA (6) vs. Rams Pass Defense DVOA (4)

Net difference: -10

Seattle Rushing Offense

Running grade (12) vs. Rams Rush defense grade (4)

Rushing DVOA (9) vs. Rams Rush Defense DVOA (3)

Net difference: -14

Buccaneers at Washington

Tampa Bay Passing Offense

Receiving grade (5) vs. Washington Pass Coverage grade (2)

Passing DVOA (5) vs. Washington Pass Defense DVOA (2)

Net difference: -6

Tampa Bay Rushing Offense

Running grade (11) vs. Washington Rush Defense grade (9)

Rushing DVOA (10) vs. Washington Rush Defense DVOA (11)

Net difference: -1

Washington Passing Offense

Receiving grade (31) vs. Bucs Pass coverage grade (8)

Passing DVOA (32) vs. Bucs Pass Defense DVOA (5)

Net difference: -50

Washington Rushing Offense

Running grade (21) vs. Bucs Rush defense grade (10)

Rushing DVOA (14) vs. Bucs Rush Defense DVOA (1)

Net difference: -24

Ravens at Titans

Baltimore Passing Offense

Receiving grade (27) vs. Titans Pass Coverage grade (12)

Passing DVOA (17) vs. Titans Pass Defense DVOA (30)

Net difference: -2

Baltimore Rushing Offense

Running grade (4) vs. Titans Rush Defense grade (17)

Rushing DVOA (3) vs. Titans Rush Defense DVOA (16)

Net difference: +26

Tennessee Passing Offense

Receiving grade (2) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (9)

Passing DVOA (4) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (10)

Net difference: +13

Tennessee Rushing Offense

Running grade (1) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (15)

Rushing DVOA (2) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (12)

Net difference: +24

Bears at Saints

Chicago Passing Offense

Receiving grade (20) vs. Saints Pass Coverage grade (19)

Passing DVOA (23) vs. Saints Pass Defense DVOA (3)

Net difference: -21

Chicago Rushing Offense

Running grade (8) vs. Saints Rush Defense grade (2)

Rushing DVOA (25) vs. Saints Rush Defense DVOA (2)

Net difference: -29

New Orleans Passing Offense

Receiving grade (12) vs. Bears Pass coverage grade (13)

Passing DVOA (12) vs. Bears Pass Defense DVOA (13)

Net difference: +2

New Orleans Rushing Offense

Running grade (5) vs. Bears Rush defense grade (6)

Rushing DVOA (1) vs. Bears Rush Defense DVOA (4)

Net difference: +4

Browns at Steelers

Cleveland Passing Offense

Receiving grade (10) vs. Steelers Pass Coverage grade (3)

Passing DVOA (10) vs. Steelers Pass Defense DVOA (1)

Net difference: -16

Cleveland Rushing Offense

Running grade (7) vs. Steelers Rush Defense grade (7)

Rushing DVOA (7) vs. Steelers Rush Defense DVOA (5)

Net difference: -2

Pittsburgh Passing Offense

Receiving grade (29) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (20)

Passing DVOA (21) vs. Browns Pass Defense DVOA (25)

Net difference: -5

Pittsburgh Rushing Offense

Running grade (31) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (18)

Rushing DVOA (30) vs. Browns Rush Defense DVOA (19)

Net difference: -24

Follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, for picks and props for every Wild Card game. Thanks for reading!

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