Underlying Factors to Consider
When selecting a daily fantasy lineup in the NBA, it is important to think more outside the box than you normally would in the regular season.
For example in the playoffs, the rotation of teams gets shortened, thus coinciding with star players logging more minutes. With that being said, defenses usually gear up and the physicality of the game increases.
In the regular season, more players play, and it often comes down to usage and opportunity on any given night especially in a daily league setting. The more minutes and touches they get, the more likely they are to break out. Defenses and home-court advantage are way less prominent as well.
In the playoffs however, home court definitely can play a factor in someone’s performance especially if they are secondary options. In general, role players tend to play much better at home compared to on the road. Picking a role player on the road is more risky, but then again could provide great value if they break out.
Monte Morris of the Denver Nuggets, is a prime example of a role player who broke out, especially in Games 5 and 6 in the first round vs. the Portland Trailblazers. He posted 22 and 28 in back to back games while shooting a decent percentage from the field. Those who selected Morris in their daily fantasy lineups that night definitely received great value and then some.
In a seven game series, it is important to look at how a team decides to defend a player in previous games when deciding whether or not you should pick them in their lineups. If teams like the Knicks and 76ers are deciding to man up one on one vs Trae Young for instance, it is wise to select him. However, if a team decides to make adjustments and get the ball out of his hands, players like Kevin Huerter or Bogdan Bogdanovic for instance would be great picks.
Wide open threes for knockdown players like Huerter and Bogdanovic will likely go in more often than not, especially if they have already hit a few.
Another example is a player like Donavan Mitchell. Mitchell in the first round for example might not be as effective as he was against Dylan Brook and the Memphis Grizzlies this time around against lockdown defenders like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Then again, who is to say that they are going to be the primary defenders.
It will be interesting to see who Ty Lue decides to put on Mitchell tonight in Game 1. In the last series against the Dallas Mavericks, Leonard and George were often not on Luka Doncic which is a big reason why the series even extended to seven games to begin with.
Game 1’s are always toss ups and huge risks when selecting daily fantasy lineups. I often like to give it a Game or two to see which players are matching up with who, and how hot they are to start the series. Once I gather that information, it will be a lot easier to gear.
Now that Kevin Durant for example has started off hot against the Bucks, it will be hard to make a case that he will not keep it up the rest of the series in Game 3 and beyond.
It will be interesting to see how the playoffs shake out, but one thing is for sure; selecting daily fantasy picks in the playoffs is hard to predict and is more often than not is a toss up.