Divisional Round Bets: Matchup Breakdowns
As is a weekly tradition, I present matchup breakdowns to help inform our Divisional round bets.
This is for my data nerds out there – my own analysis and choices will come later. We’ve got PFF grades and DVOA rankings for every matchup.
There are some clear opportunities this weekend, and I’m particularly licking my chops at the Browns-Chiefs game. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, seeing as it’s listed as the highest projected points of the weekend.
Still, I’m compelled to take the over in that game based on these rankings.
I’m also leaning towards taking the Rams to cover the +6.5, but we need to do a bit more digging first.
There should be no doubt that I will dig – make sure you don’t miss my game previews this weekend. I’ll post all of them on Twitter, @griffybets.
Let’s get to it. Take a look at the data and form your own opinions. Maybe they’re the same as mine, that would be great! My favorite props and picks will come throughout the week.
Give me a shout on Twitter, which teams do you like this weekend?
Divisional Round Bets: Matchup Rankings for Every Game
Each game for the Divisional Round is here. All the information you need for player props. Start your engines.
Rams at Packers
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Los Angeles Passing Offense
Receiving grade (19) vs. Packers Pass Coverage grade (3)
Passing DVOA (20) vs. Packers Pass Defense DVOA (15)
Net difference: -21
Los Angeles Rushing Offense
Running grade (17) vs. Packers Rush Defense grade (16)
Rushing DVOA (4) vs. Packers Rush Defense DVOA (18)
Net difference: +13
Green Bay Passing Offense*
Receiving grade (10) vs. Rams Pass coverage grade (1)
Passing DVOA (1) vs. Rams Pass Defense DVOA (4)
Net difference: -6
*I should note, Green Bay’s Passing grade on PFF is 1. Strength on strength
Green Bay Rushing Offense
Running grade (6) vs. Rams Rush defense grade (4)
Rushing DVOA (5) vs. Rams Rush Defense DVOA (3)
Net difference: -4
Ravens at Bills
Baltimore Passing Offense
Receiving grade (27) vs. Bills Pass Coverage grade (10)
Passing DVOA (17) vs. Bills Pass Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: -22
Baltimore Rushing Offense
Running grade (3) vs. Bills Rush Defense grade (31)
Rushing DVOA (3) vs. Bills Rush Defense DVOA (17)
Net difference: +42
Buffalo Passing Offense
Receiving grade (2) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (7)
Passing DVOA (3) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (10)
Net difference: +12
Buffalo Rushing Offense
Running grade (11) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (15)
Rushing DVOA (22) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: -6
Browns at Chiefs
Cleveland Passing Offense
Receiving grade (10) vs. Chiefs Pass Coverage grade (15)
Passing DVOA (10) vs. Chiefs Pass Defense DVOA (16)
Net difference: +11
Cleveland Rushing Offense
Running grade (7) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense grade (21)
Rushing DVOA (7) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense DVOA (31)
Net difference: +38
Kansas City Passing Offense
Receiving grade (4) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (22)
Passing DVOA (2) vs. Browns Pass Defense DVOA (25)
Net difference: +41
Kansas City Rushing Offense
Running grade (15) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (18)
Rushing DVOA (13) vs. Browns Rush Defense DVOA (19)
Net difference: +9
Buccaneers at Saints
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Tampa Bay Passing Offense
Receiving grade (7) vs. Saints Pass Coverage grade (18)
Passing DVOA (5) vs. Saints Pass Defense DVOA (3)
Net difference: +9
Tampa Bay Rushing Offense
Running grade (12) vs. Saints Rush Defense grade (1)
Rushing DVOA (10) vs. Saints Rush Defense DVOA (2)
Net difference: -19
New Orleans Passing Offense
Receiving grade (9) vs. Bucs Pass coverage grade (6)
Passing DVOA (12) vs. Bucs Pass Defense DVOA (5)
Net difference: -10
New Orleans Rushing Offense
Running grade (5) vs. Bucs Rush defense grade (10)
Rushing DVOA (1) vs. Bucs Rush Defense DVOA (1)
Net difference: +5
Follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, for picks and props for every Divisional Round game. Thanks for reading!
Last week’s work:
