Divisional Round Bets: Matchup Breakdowns

NFL Divisional Round Bets

As is a weekly tradition, I present matchup breakdowns to help inform our Divisional round bets. 

This is for my data nerds out there – my own analysis and choices will come later. We’ve got PFF grades and DVOA rankings for every matchup.

There are some clear opportunities this weekend, and I’m particularly licking my chops at the Browns-Chiefs game. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, seeing as it’s listed as the highest projected points of the weekend.

Still, I’m compelled to take the over in that game based on these rankings.

I’m also leaning towards taking the Rams to cover the +6.5, but we need to do a bit more digging first.

There should be no doubt that I will dig – make sure you don’t miss my game previews this weekend. I’ll post all of them on Twitter, @griffybets.

Let’s get to it. Take a look at the data and form your own opinions. Maybe they’re the same as mine, that would be great! My favorite props and picks will come throughout the week.

Give me a shout on Twitter, which teams do you like this weekend?

Divisional Round Bets: Matchup Rankings for Every Game

Each game for the Divisional Round is here. All the information you need for player props. Start your engines.

Rams at Packers

3 reasons why Jalen Ramsey contract extension with Rams makes sense - Turf  Show Times

Los Angeles Passing Offense

Receiving grade (19) vs. Packers Pass Coverage grade (3)

Passing DVOA (20) vs. Packers Pass Defense DVOA (15)

Net difference: -21

Los Angeles Rushing Offense

Running grade (17) vs. Packers Rush Defense grade (16)

Rushing DVOA (4) vs. Packers Rush Defense DVOA (18)

Net difference: +13

Green Bay Passing Offense*

Receiving grade (10) vs. Rams Pass coverage grade (1)

Passing DVOA (1) vs. Rams Pass Defense DVOA (4)

Net difference: -6

*I should note, Green Bay’s Passing grade on PFF is 1. Strength on strength

Green Bay Rushing Offense

Running grade (6) vs. Rams Rush defense grade (4)

Rushing DVOA (5) vs. Rams Rush Defense DVOA (3)

Net difference: -4

Ravens at Bills

Lamar Jackson leads Ravens to wild-card win over Titans - Los Angeles Times

Baltimore Passing Offense

Receiving grade (27) vs. Bills Pass Coverage grade (10)

Passing DVOA (17) vs. Bills Pass Defense DVOA (12)

Net difference: -22

Baltimore Rushing Offense

Running grade (3) vs. Bills Rush Defense grade (31)

Rushing DVOA (3) vs. Bills Rush Defense DVOA (17)

Net difference: +42

Buffalo Passing Offense

Receiving grade (2) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (7)

Passing DVOA (3) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (10)

Net difference: +12

Buffalo Rushing Offense

Running grade (11) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (15)

Rushing DVOA (22) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (12)

Net difference: -6

Browns at Chiefs

Browns activate Nick Chubb from injured reserve; could return in Week 10

Cleveland Passing Offense

Receiving grade (10) vs. Chiefs Pass Coverage grade (15)

Passing DVOA (10) vs. Chiefs Pass Defense DVOA (16)

Net difference: +11

Cleveland Rushing Offense

Running grade (7) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense grade (21)

Rushing DVOA (7) vs. Chiefs Rush Defense DVOA (31)

Net difference: +38

Kansas City Passing Offense

Receiving grade (4) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (22)

Passing DVOA (2) vs. Browns Pass Defense DVOA (25)

Net difference: +41

Kansas City Rushing Offense

Running grade (15) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (18)

Rushing DVOA (13) vs. Browns Rush Defense DVOA (19)

Net difference: +9

Buccaneers at Saints

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady to be featured on Fox News special - Bucs Nation

Tampa Bay Passing Offense

Receiving grade (7) vs. Saints Pass Coverage grade (18)

Passing DVOA (5) vs. Saints Pass Defense DVOA (3)

Net difference: +9

Tampa Bay Rushing Offense

Running grade (12) vs. Saints Rush Defense grade (1)

Rushing DVOA (10) vs. Saints Rush Defense DVOA (2)

Net difference: -19

New Orleans Passing Offense

Receiving grade (9) vs. Bucs Pass coverage grade (6)

Passing DVOA (12) vs. Bucs Pass Defense DVOA (5)

Net difference: -10

New Orleans Rushing Offense

Running grade (5) vs. Bucs Rush defense grade (10)

Rushing DVOA (1) vs. Bucs Rush Defense DVOA (1)

Net difference: +5

Follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, for picks and props for every Divisional Round game. Thanks for reading!

Last week’s work:

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter